Dear Partners and Friends,
Kuroto Fund gained +13.7% in the second quarter of 2021 and was up +24.5% for the year to date through June 30th. By comparison, the EM index gained +5.1% in the second quarter and +7.4% through June. We estimate that the portfolio is trading at 6.4x '22 earnings, growing earnings 19% year over year, generating 19%+ unadjusted ROEs, and returning a 4.7% dividend yield . [1]
In the summer of 2018, we invested 7% of partners’ capital into Turkey. That fall, we wrote the following: “As capital allocators to undervalued, better businesses in emerging markets, we are always looking for instances in which negative market sentiment overwhelms underlying financial and political reality. This past summer [2018], as Turkey fell squarely into that category, we made our first investment there in more than a decade.”
At the time, investors were concerned that foreign banks would stop rolling over their lines of credit to Turkish banks and that Turkey would impose capital controls. We traveled to Turkey several times that year and became convinced that this worst-case scenario was extremely unlikely. European banks had verbally committed to rolling over their credit lines to Turkish banks, and the Trump administration, while publicly criticizing Erdogan, was working closely with him behind the scenes. Convinced that the worst-case scenario was off the table, we purchased shares in a handful of Turkish companies.
Our spring and early summer 2018 investments in Turkey did not go well. Turk Tractor and Akbank each declined more than 30% in USD terms by mid-August. We realized our losses on Akbank and bought Garanti Bank at a similar valuation. We then sold Turk Tractor, made a substantial investment in Logo Yazlim, and added to our position in Garanti Bank. As the Turkish economy began to normalize that fall, our companies thrived. We exited Garanti Bank in relatively short order with the shares up over 50%, and we continue to own Logo. In dollar terms, Logo is up three-fold since our initial purchases despite a 30% decline in the Turkish lira.
Since our first purchases in May 2018, Turkey has been our best contributing country outside of Vietnam, yielding Kuroto Fund a $10m return and a 33% IRR. Our experience, however, has been the exception rather than the rule for Turkish equity investors in recent years. Over the same period, the Turkish MSCI index declined 32% in dollar terms. Our outperformance highlights our ability to differentiate ourselves from broad equity indices and the opportunities that a rifle-shot approach to investing can generate in challenging geographies.
From a company-specific perspective, Turkey remains an incredibly attractive investment destination: 1) Turkish stocks are cheap at a time when stocks globally are not; 2) The Turkish Lira is cheap; 3) the best Turkish companies are run to global standards. The resulting company-specific combination of value and quality remains particularly appealing to better-business value investors like us.
That said, today’s equity investors in Turkey are signing up for political instability. The deep divisions in Turkish society are not compatible with smooth transitions of power. In the words of an American military analyst, “There is no situation under which Erdogan will hold some kind of electoral process, lose and say, ‘Here are the keys to the country.’”[1] On the one hand, Erdogan knows that if he gives up power, he will spend the rest of his life in prison. On the other hand, there is no legitimate way for him to remain in power after an election loss.
Erdogan’s political calculation is complicated by his poor relations with the West. Europe and America would welcome his departure and are not going to “look the other way” if he rigs an election or imprisons his political opponents. Instead, the West will ratchet up the sanctions if Erdogan refuses to concede an electoral defeat. Accordingly, recent declines in public support for Erdogan’s AKP and a corresponding increase in support for the secular opposition, CHP, increases the likelihood of a political crisis in the short-term.
[1] Financial Times, November 18, 2020, Laura Pitel. “Erdogan’s family drama and the future of Turkey”
Given these constraints, Erdogan is actively trying to stay in power by winning at the ballot box. His strategy to date mainly entails an unending cycle of unorthodox economic measures aimed at boosting economic activity. If tourism returns, the Turkish Lira appreciates, and Turkish Central Bank lowers rates, Erdogan may just be able retain power through the ballot box. An election must be called in Turkey by June 18, 2023, so the window for this scenario to play out is incredibly tight. Moreover, after turning on the Gulenists following the 2016 coup attempt, Erdogan lacks the support of the technocratic elite. As such, he is relying on bureaucrats with less traditional resumes, most notably, Şahap Kavcıoğlu, the current head of the Turkish central bank. With inflation running at 18% per year, Sahap is going to have a tough time getting inflation expectations and rates down in time for Erdogan to call an election he is likely to win.
The aforementioned scenarios are further complicated by Erdogan’s lack of control over his own administration and his declining health. A recently released official video during which Erdogan dozes off makes clear that both factors are currently in play (watch it here). If Erdogan were unable to fulfil his duties as President, given the lack of an alternative leader within the AKP party, a smooth transition of power might actually unfold.
At today’s valuations in Turkey, an enormous amount of negative news is already in the price, and we are firm believers in entering markets when the price is right even when there is still uncertainty. That said, the current moment in Turkey is less predictable than 2018. There is a real probability that Erdogan’s efforts to stay in power will create an even better entry point than what is on offer today. Given the current valuations, we are keeping our Turkish weighting at ~10%.
Organization
Effective January 1, 2021, the fund engaged Eisner Amper LLP as its auditor and Andersen Tax LLC as its tax advisor. We have shifted from a bundled audit tax provider to two separate service providers that will provide a wider range of tax expertise, additional oversight, and a more competitive fee structure. Our intention is always to provide our partners with the best service-provider at the best value.
Sincerely,
Sean Fieler Brad Virbitsky
END NOTES
[1] Performance stated for Kuroto Fund, L.P. Class A on a net basis. An investor’s performance may differ based on timing of contributions, withdrawals, share class, and participation in new issues. Unless otherwise noted, all company-specific data is derived from internal analysis, company presentations, or Bloomberg. Company valuations and exposures are as of 6.30.20.
Endnote: Unless otherwise noted, all company-specific data derived from internal analysis, company presentations, Bloomberg, and other independent sources. Values as of 06.30.21, unless otherwise noted.
This document is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy interests in any product and is being provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as legal, tax or investment advice. An offering of interests will be made only by means of a confidential private offering memorandum and only to qualified investors in jurisdictions where permitted by law.
An investment is speculative and involves a high degree of risk. There is no secondary market for the investor’s interests and none is expected to develop and there may be restrictions on transferring interests. The Investment Advisor has total trading authority. Performance results are net of fees and expenses and reflect the reinvestment of dividends, interest and other earnings.
Prior performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Any investment in a fund involves the risk of loss. Performance can be volatile and an investor could lose all or a substantial portion of his or her investment.
The information presented herein is current only as of the particular dates specified for such information, and is subject to change in future periods without notice.
Equinox Partners Investment Management, LLC | Information as of 12.31.24 unless noted | *SEC registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training
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